2012 Quarry Predictions - The Make Fun of Me for Being Wrong Post

Sunday, 18 November 2012

Since the Marlins-Blue Jays trade is still in limbo, I figured I would use this week's Hot Stove Roundup time to review my pre-season predictions.  It is the perfect week to do that since the season awards were just given out.  I know the World Series is supposed to be the end of the season, but to me the season awards being handed out means the 2012 season is officially over.  Around the All Star break, I had a mid-season review of my predictions and it was pretty bad to say the least.  Did I manage to turn it around or did I possibly do worse than 5 right out of 30?  Let's take a look.

AL EAST
My Predicted Order
1. Tampa Bay
2. Toronto
3. New York
4. Boston
5. Baltimore

Actual Order = 0 correct
1. New York
2. Baltimore (WC2)
3. Tampa Bay
4. Toronto
5. Boston



In the midseason review Boston was still in 4th, so 1 of my 2 correct changed.  I was sure 2012 would finally be the year that age and poor pitching depth caught up with the Yankees, but not yet.  After I picked Baltimore as my breakout team in 2011, I cooled on them in favor of Toronto as my breakout team.  It looks like I might have been a year early on both of them.  Boston looks like they might be in the basement in this division for a few years.



AL CENTRAL
My Predicted Order
1. Detroit
2. Kansas City (WC2)
3. Minnesota
4. Cleveland
5. Chicago

Actual Order = 2 correct
1. Detroit
2. Chicago
3. Kansas City
4. Cleveland
5. Minnesota


Alright, I got two guaranteed correct with the Tigers and the Indians falling into place, although it took a massive collapse from Chicago for that to happen.  Speaking of the White Sox, I was wrong because I thought they would be horrible in 2012, but they were only horrible in September.  Kansas City is going to breakout soon, but it will probably happen in a year that I pick them last.  So, Royals fans get your bribes ready because my 2013 predictions are only a few months away.  What happened to the Twins?  As soon as they signed Mauer to that huge deal, they have basically fallen apart.  It will probably be a while before they are good again.


AL WEST
My Predicted Order
1. Los Angeles
2. Texas (WC1)
3. Seattle
4. Oakland

Actual Order = 1 correct
1. Oakland
2. Texas (WC1)
3. Los Angeles
4. Seattle


Hey, another point for me although it was definitely a surprising one.  I picked Oakland to have the worst record in the league.  Yeah I was wrong, but really even in September who saw Oakland winning this division.  The Angels were an expensive disappointment, although the future could be bright with Mike Trout's emergence.  The Mariners were by far the best last place team in the league.  I don't think there is anyone happier than Seattle that the Astros will be here next year.


AL AWARDS
Predictions
MVP - Albert Pujols, Los Angeles
Cy Young - David Price, Tampa Bay
ROY - Matt Moore, Tampa Bay
Comeback Player - Adam Dunn, Chicago
Biggest Disappointment - Bobby Valentine, Boston


Actual = 1 correct
MVP - Miguel Cabrera - Detroit
Cy Young - David Price - Tampa Bay
ROY - Mike Trout - Los Angeles
Comeback Player - Fernando Rodney - Tampa Bay

YAHOO!  I have never gotten one of these correct and I do feel David Price was deserving of the Cy Young.  It almost makes up for him getting robbed by Felix Hernandez in 2010, which almost made up for Felix getting robbed by Zack Greinke in 2009.
 
My MVP choice in Albert Pujols did finish 17th in the voting, but it's hard to think that 2012 was anything other than a disappointment from Pujols.  I am not going to say anything about the actual winner other than I think the right choice was made.

For Rookie of the Year, Trout was hyped quite a bit, but not as much as Matt Moore.  I fell into the hype machine and picked Moore who had a decent year that builds hope for his future, but it didn't come close to living to his hype.

The biggest travesty in the voting in my mind was awarding the Comeback Player of the Year to Fernando Rodney.  He had one of the best seasons ever for a reliever, but what exactly did he come back from?  Last year he was a decent reliever, but not bad enough to say he has to have a big comeback to save his career, unlike Adam Dunn.  Although I wish Lew Ford had gotten the award because he came back from more than anyone in the AL.

There is no award for biggest disappointment, but if there was I think Bobby Valentine would not only win the award...it should named for him.  This would be almost as big a no brainer as Rookie of the Year.


NL EAST
My Predicted Order
1. Philadelphia
2. Miami (WC1)
3. Atlanta (WC2)
4. Washington
5. New York

Actual Order = 0 correct
1. Washington
2. Atlanta (WC1)
3. Philadelphia

4. New York
5. Miami

The score will read that I got 0 correct, but I am taking partial credit for Atlanta's wild card.  This season for the Nationals will probably be looked by future baseball fans much like Atlanta's season in 1991.  The beginning of a dynasty.  The one thing that may stop that from happening would be the Braves.  They have a nice young team as well and I think the Nats/Braves rivalry will be the best of this decade.  The Phillies made a very nice comeback from a rough first half, but came up short in the long run.  This year was probably the end of a nice run by the Phils.  The Mets are a pretty unremarkable team right now, but they do have a few good pitching prospects on the way.  But then again, don't they always have 3-4 supposed to be great pitchers on the way?  The less said about the Marlins, the better.  At this moment, I hope they are contracted soon.

NL CENTRAL
My Predicted Order
1. St. Louis
2. Cincinnati
3. Pittsburgh
4. Milwaukee
5. Chicago
6. Houston

Actual Order = 2 correct
1. Cincinnati
2. St. Louis (WC2)
3. Milwaukee
4. Pittsburgh
5. Chicago
6. Houston


I was actually better with this division at mid-season when I had 4 correct.  The Reds were runaway winners here, although they laid an egg in the playoffs (or rather 3 in a row).  The Cardinals made one of their usual end of the year "sneak into the playoff" runs this year.  The Brewers were a nice surprise this year.  I figured losing Prince and trading Greinke at mid-season would have had them with 10-15 fewer wins.  Oh, but for the Pirates.  Once again, it looked like their losing streak would come to an end before an end of the year collapse made it continue yet again.  If Seattle is the happiest city about the Astros moving, the least happy city (other than Houston) is probably Chicago.  They will now probably be a last place team again.  Houston sucked this year, traded away everyone, and are now an AL franchise.


NL WEST
My Predicted Order
1. Colorado
2. Arizona
3. San Francisco
4. Los Angeles
5. San Diego

Actual Order = 0 correct
1. San Francisco
2. Los Angeles
3. Arizona
4. San Diego

5. Colorado

I stated in my prediction that this was the toughest division to predict and that I wouldn't be surprised if my predicted order was reversed.  As it turns out, the reverse was closer to correct than the actual prediction.  The Giants had a great year, but they are still the spawn of Satan.  The Dodgers tried to become the West Coast Yankees and turned into the West Coast Mets with an expensive collapse.  Hard to believe that cherry-picking a last place team doesn't turn you into a division winner.  heeheehee  I laugh now, because the next few years will be bad for my team because of the Dodgers trying to buy the West.  The D-Backs and Padres were middling and boring.  My Rockies were injury-plagued and if healthy I think this team was at least a 3rd place team.


NL AWARDS
Predictions
MVP - Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh
Cy Young - Cole Hamels, Philadelphia
ROY - Drew Pomeranz, Colorado
Comeback Player - Adam Wainwright, St. Louis
Biggest Disappointment (tie) - Gio Gonzalez, Washington; Trevor Cahill, Arizona


Actual = 0 correct
MVP - Buster Posey - San Francisco
Cy Young - R.A. Dickey - New York
ROY - Bryce Harper - Washington
Comeback Player -Buster Posey - San Francisco

Pittsburgh's September collapse happened because of McCutchen's September collapse.  At mid-season, he was the MVP in a walk, but his bad second half led to a 3rd place finish.  Posey had a nice year, but he is still named after both a yappy dog and a flower.

Quick, raise your hand if you picked R.A. Dickey as the Cy Young winner before the year.  I'm willing to bet there were more fans that had never heard of Dickey than picked him to win.  The 2012 season for the 38 year old knuckleballer was a great story.  Cole Hamels had a great year, but not Cy Young great.  He did get enough points in the Cy Young voting to finish tied for 8th.

The only reason I didn't pick Bryce Harper to win this award was because I didn't think he would be in Washington before July or August.  Drew Pomeranz was one of the many disappointments for the Rockies, and much like my AL pick Matt Moore, got 0 votes in ROY voting.

Posey also won comeback player, and he did make a nice comeback from a horrific injury.  I wish they awarded this for a different great comeback.  My vote would have went to Braves pitcher Ben Sheets.  This guy was one of the best pitchers in the league with the Brewers in the mid-2000s, but injuries had kept him out of the league since 2008, save a 10 game stint with the 2010 Oakland A's.  His comeback in 2012 was a great story and deserving of this award.

I whiffed on biggest disappointment and admitted it in mid-season.  My problem was that usually when Oakland pitchers leave that cavernous stadium they fall apart.  However, Gonzalez went to an equally cavernous Washington stadium and turned in a season in which he finished 3rd in Cy Young voting.  Cahill was rather average for the D-Backs, but he was technically better than he was in 2011 with Oakland so it's hard to call him a disappointment.  I am sticking with my mid-season pick of Jeremy Guthrie as the year's biggest disappointment, although the Pirates collapse could be up there as well.


PLAYOFFS
Predictions
Wild Card
Texas over KC
Atlanta over Miami

Division Round
Colorado over Atlanta
Philly over St. Louis
Tampa Bay over Texas
Detroit over LA

Championship Series
Philly over Colorado
Detroit over Tampa Bay

World Series
Detroit over Philly

WS MVP - Justin Verlander, Detroit


Actual
Wild Card = 2 of 4 teams correct / 0 of 2 winners correct
Baltimore over Texas
St.Louis over Atlanta

Division Round = 2 of 8 teams correct / 1 of 4 winners correct
San Francisco over Cincinnati
St. Louis over Washington
New York over Baltimore
Detroit over Oakland

Championship Series = 1 of 4 teams correct / 1 of 2 winners correct
San Francisco over St. Louis
Detroit over New York

World Series = 1 of 2 teams correct / 0 of 1 winner correct
San Francisco over Detroit

WS MVP - Pablo Sandoval - San Francisco


It is kind of amusing that both of my picks for winning the wild card games were the actual two losers of those games.  Playoff predictions are hard, especially when you only pick 4 correct playoff teams, but I did pick Detroit to be in the World Series.  It's a shame that they couldn't finish the task.  That means my streak of not picking the correct World Series winner before the season extends to 24 years.  That's right the last correct pre-season W.S. prediction I made was the 1988 L.A. Dodgers.  I really need to get one right soon because that fact continues to make me a little ill.


Overall, I got 5 correct picks for the season and picked the AL Cy Young winner and the AL pennant winner correctly.  So overall it wasn't a great year for me by any means.  In 2011, I got 9 correct picks and picked 4 of 8 playoff teams correctly (including one Division Series correct), but I didn't pick any award winners or pennant winners correctly.  I'm satisfied, but I hope to do even better in 2013.  Like I said bribes will be accepted to pick your team to be horrible.

Thanx for reading.

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2012 Season Predictions at the Halfway Point

Thursday, 12 July 2012

Normally this is the day for the Todd and the Todd-lers portion of Rockies history, but with MLB starting the second half of the season I figured it was the perfect day for checking in with my 2nd annual pre-season predictions.  Not to worry, Todd and the Todd-lers Thursday will return next week for the handful of you that are actually following along.  For now, let's take a look back, while I cringe and laugh at my horrible prognostication and feel free to make fun of me in the comments.

NL EAST

My Predicted Order
1. Philadelphia
2. Miami (WC1)
3. Atlanta (WC2)
4. Washington
5. New York


Actual Order
1. Washington
2. Atlanta (WC2)
3. New York
4. Miami
5. Philadelphia


Okay, one division in and I am wrong on all five positions so far.  I am taking solace in the fact that I did predict the Braves to be the 2nd Wild Card, but there are three other teams within a half game of taking that spot.  I think Washington will fall apart before the end of the year because of the idiotic decision to shut down Strasburg, but there is almost no chance of the Phillies winning this division. 




NL CENTRAL
My Predicted Order
1. St. Louis
2. Cincinnati
3. Pittsburgh
4. Milwaukee
5. Chicago
6. Houston


Actual Order
1. Pittsburgh
2. Cincinnati (WC1)
3. St. Louis
4. Milwaukee
5. Chicago
6. Houston


I am a little proud of myself here having 4 of the 6 places correct so far and I am not too far away from being perfect here.  I really hope the Pirates can maintain in the second half and not fall apart like last year.  In fact, I am making them my rooting interest for the rest of the season because my team is doing nothing.  This division is divided symmetrically into the haves and have-nots.  I could see any of the top three winning this division.




NL WEST
My Predicted Order
1. Colorado
2. Arizona
3. San Francisco
4. Los Angeles
5. San Diego


Actual Order
1. Los Angeles
2. San Francisco
3. Arizona
4. Colorado
5. San Diego


Ouch, once again.  I did preface that there was not a lot of difference between these five clubs and it wouldn't be surprising to see any of the five win the division.  Any of the top three could win this thing (assuming Arizona is not a seller) and I think the one that makes the best trade at the deadline will come out on top.  The only thing I am hoping for with my Rockies is to not be the worst team in franchise history.  Both the 1993 and 2005 teams finished 67-95...it's gonna be close, but it's looking like this will be the worst year in Colorado history.




AL EAST
My Predicted Order
1. Tampa Bay
2. Toronto
3. New York
4. Boston
5. Baltimore


Actual Order
1. New York
2. Baltimore (WC2)
3. Tampa Bay
4 (tie). Boston
4 (tie). Toronto


I really suck at Eastern picks.  I guess I can consider myself getting a half a point with Boston being tied for 4th.  I thought the Yankees age would catch up with them finally, but apparently their deal with the devil runs at least one more year.  Baltimore was my surprise pick last year and I got burned.  I didn't want to make the same mistake again, so I picked the Jays as my surprise pick.  Lo and behold, it is looking like I made the same mistake again.




AL CENTRAL
My Predicted Order
1. Detroit
2. Kansas City (WC2)
3. Minnesota
4. Cleveland
5. Chicago


Actual Order
1. Chicago
2. Cleveland
3. Detroit
4. Kansas City
5. Minnesota


Boy I stunk here.  Not only did I pick the White Sox to be last in the division, I thought they would be the 2nd worst team in the majors.  They have been one of better surprises of the season though.  This is almost exactly what happened last year in this division when I picked Cleveland last and they led at the All Star Break.  I still think Detroit will ultimately win this division, but the White Sox could be in the running for a wild card berth.




AL WEST
My Predicted Order
1. Los Angeles
2. Texas (WC1)
3. Seattle
4. Oakland


Actual Order
1. Texas
2. Los Angeles (WC1)
3. Oakland
4. Seattle


Even though so far I picked every spot wrong in this division, I don't think I will be far off from the being correct at the end of the year.  The Angels have been motoring since the horrible month of April and I think they will catch the Rangers before the end.  I picked Oakland to be the worst team in the majors and so far I am wrong.  I still they will be at the bottom of the division before it's all over.




AWARD WINNERS
My NL Predictions
MVP - Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh
Cy Young - Cole Hamels, Philadelphia
ROY - Drew Pomeranz, Colorado
Comeback Player - Adam Wainwright, St. Louis
Biggest Disappointment (tie) - Gio Gonzalez, Washington; Trevor Cahill, Arizona


I am so far happy with my pick of McCutchen since he leads the league in BA and is close in homers and RBIs.  Challenges could come from Carlos Beltran, Joey Votto, and Carlos Gonzalez (if the Rockies get on a run).
Hamels was not that bad of a pick either since he is 10-4 at the moment, but he is probably looking up at R.A. Dickey, who no one probably picked to win.  Hamels probable only chance for winning is a trade to another NL club.
Rookie of the year is always a crap shoot. Pomeranz has been good, but has been in the minors most of the season.  I don't think anyone will take down the hype machine that is Bryce Harper, even if he is overrated.
Comeback player is one of those awards that is easy to predict, but hard to verify because its hard to tell who is eligible.  There is no stats machine for comebacks yet (that I know of anyway).  Wainwright has been decent enough though, so I'll stick with him.
I kind of bit the big one with biggest disappointment since Gio Gonzalez was an All Star and is tied for the league lead in victories.  Trevor Cahill hasn't been great, but he would be hard to call a disappointment at the moment.  So far I would probably call Jeremy Guthrie the biggest disappointment of the year, although Rickie Weeks and Tim Lincecum would be high on the list as well.




My AL Predictions
MVP - Albert Pujols, Los Angeles
Cy Young - David Price, Tampa Bay
ROY - Matt Moore, Tampa Bay
Comeback Player - Adam Dunn, Chicago
Biggest Disappointment - Bobby Valentine, Boston


I don't know that you could call Pujols a disappointment so far, but he hasn't been his old dominant self as of yet.  Right now, I would have to pick Josh Hamilton although rookie Mike Trout is making some serious noise.
I am still fairly confident with my pick of Price since he is leading the league in wins and was an All Star.  Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, and Chris Sale (who saw that coming) could factor in as well.
Matt Moore has been a tad disappointing so far, but the expectations for him were outrageous anyway.  Barring injury, no one is getting this award away from Mike Trout.
Adam Dunn has this award all but locked up.  I predicted a season line of .220/25/85 which he has nearly hit already.  40 homers is in the realm of possibilities.
I think I was correct in my pick of Valentine so far, although both the Royals' Eric Hosmer and the Mariners' Jesus Montero could qualify as well.





So far my division predictions (5 of 30 correct) have been historically awful.  In fact if you take out the NL Central, I have correctly picked 1 position correctly (and it was a tie) which is probably harder to do than getting them all right.  I think I have done relatively good with my awards prediction, though.  Who knows how the rest of the season will go, but as you can see from my picks I obviously don't.


Thanx for reading.

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2011 MLB Predictions - The Halfway Point

Monday, 4 July 2011

Sorry for my lack of posting last week, but honestly I didn't have a lot of time or desire to post anything.  I am hoping the week off from posting will rejuvenate me. 

Since we at the approximate halfway point for most teams, I figured a look back at my first half predictions was in order.  Some divisions I got very close so far...others, um, well, not so much.  Let's take a look at why I don't tend to bet sports.

NL EAST
Prediction
1. Braves
2. Phillies - WC
3. Mets
4. Marlins
5. Nationals

Actual
1. Phillies
2. Braves - WC
3. Mets
4. Nationals
5. Marlins

Well this is one of my better picked divisions.  I picked 2 playoff teams and as of now those 2 are in, just in a different order.  I still think my original order could still come to pass.

NL CENTRAL
Prediction
1. Brewers
2. Cardinals
3. Reds
4. Cubs
5. Pirates
6. Astros

Actual
1. (tie) Brewers
1. (tie) Cardinals
3. Pirates
4. Reds
5. Cubs
6. Astros

Has any team been a more pleasant surprise than the Pirates this year?  They have been bad for so long, I really hope they at least finish over .500.  This is another division that I was not too far off on.  I also predicted the Astros would be among the 3 teams in contention for the #1 pick next year and they have the worst record by about 5 games so far.  I said it would be a dogfight between 4 teams and it is, I thought the Cubs instead of the Pirates would be the 4th team though.

NL WEST
Prediction
1. Rockies
2. Dodgers
3. Giants
4. Diamondbacks
5. Padres

Actual
1. Giants
2. Diamondbacks
3. Rockies
4. Padres
5. Dodgers

Here is an example of a badly picked division.  I missed all 5 spots.  It could still change and I haven't lost faith in my Rockies yet, but no way are the Dodgers finishing 2nd.  The D-Backs are very surprising as well, although I can't say that is a pleasant surprise like the Pirates. 


AL EAST
Prediction
1. Red Sox
2. Rays - WC
3. Orioles
4. Yankees
5. Blue Jays

Actual
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox - WC
3. Rays
4. Blue Jays
5. Orioles

Here is another bad division for me.  I did pick the correct division for the Wild Card, but it's not exactly going out on a limb to pick the AL East for that honor since they get it almost every year.  I thought this might be the year age and injury might catch up to the Yanks, but it appears that while I was right...it still hasn't stopped them from winning.  The Orioles are my disappointing team of the year, I thought they might have it put together somewhat, but it looks like another high pick for them. 

AL CENTRAL
Prediction
1. Twins
2. Tigers
3. White Sox
4. Royals
5. Indians

Actual
1. Indians
2. Tigers
3. White Sox
4. Twins
5. Royals

Oops.  If the Pirates aren't the feel good story of the year, then the Indians are.  They were one of the 3 teams, with the Astros and Jays, that I thought would be fighting for the #1 pick.  In reality, they would be in the playoffs as the #2 seed right now.  Could they still end up last?  Yes, and I don't see them holding onto a playoff spot but they should be a solid 2nd or 3rd in division.  The Twins, well that has just been injuries run amok. 

AL WEST
Prediction
1. Rangers
2. Athletics
3. Mariners
4. Angels

Actual
1. (tie) Rangers
1. (tie) Angels
3. Mariners
4. Athletics

Not TOO bad, but not great either, because I did not think the Angels had a chance this year (or for a few years to come).  Obviously I was wrong, so far.  The A's are another really big disappointment.  With the Moneyball movie coming out, I wonder if people will remember that Billy Beane has a grand total of 0 World Series titles with his sabermetrics.  Sure I am a little old-school, but wins are STILL more important than getting on base.


AWARD WINNERS
Predictions

NL MVP - Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
NL Cy Young - Cole Hamels, Phillies
NL ROY - Freddie Freeman, Braves

AL MVP - Joe Mauer, Twins
AL Cy Young - Jon Lester, Red Sox
AL ROY - Kyle Drabek - Blue Jays




Tulo is probably not going to be the MVP, but he is a 2nd half star every year.  Hamels is definitely in the top 3 so far this year along with Halladay and Jurrgens, so I might get one right.  The NL Rookie of the Year is wide open at the moment with Freeman probably top 5, but no one is ahead of the game so far.

The AL picks are just not very good, but I am not a big AL fan either so it's okay.  Mauer has been hurt a lot and not very good when he wasn't hurt.  No chance there, Adrian Gonzalez or Jose Bautista would be my pick right now.  Lester is not a horrible pick, but he has been second tier at best this year.  Verlander or Weaver will probably get this one.  Kyle Drabek is probably not in the top 5 in AL rookie STARTERS, let alone all rookies.  Pineda or Hellickson should take this award.


The Playoffs haven't started obviously so I will save that recap for the end of the season.  All in all, I was very average with the team predictions (5 out of 8 playoff teams so far) and downright awful with the awards (1 correct if I am lucky).  I haven't looked at these predictions since I wrote them so I hope you have had as much fun as I have looking back.

Feel free to make fun of my ineptness in the comments section.

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Predictions for the 2011 Baseball Season

Wednesday, 30 March 2011

A couple of other bloggers have put their prognostication skills to the test by predicting the 2011 season.  Since I did so, um well, picking March Madness (Hey I got 1 Final Four team right which is more than most), I decided to put my ideas down for scrutiny as well.  Here we go starting with the Senior Circuit.

NL East
1. Braves
2. Phillies - WC
3. Mets
4. Marlins
5. Nationals

I think what most people who assumed a Phillies/Red Sox World Series after free agency forgot is they have to play the games AND stay healthy.  Philadelphia has been cursed with injuries and Atlanta just seems to be young and hungry again.  It wouldn't surprise me to see the Mets really surprise a lot of people this year either.  The Marlins and Nats are probably just fodder this year, but the Nats do remind me a lot of the 1990s Devil Rays (Rays to you youngsters).  Losing year after year and collecting those high draft picks.

NL Central
1. Brewers
2. Cardinals
3. Reds
4. Cubs
5. Pirates
6. Astros

This is the toughest division to pick by far.  Honestly, other than the Pirates and Astros, I wouldn't be surprised if any of the other four took this division title.  I picked the Brewers simply because this is their last chance for a long time.  They mortgaged their future and will probably be among the worst teams in MLB for the late 2010s.  The wild card is probably not going to come from this division, because they will be beating each other up too much.  Other than Astros fans, can anyone else name 5 Astros off the top of their head and I'll even give you Hunter Pence?

NL West
1. Rockies
2. Dodgers
3. Giants
4. Diamondbacks
5. Padres

I hope this is how it works out.  The Rockies have made the playoffs as the wild card three times in their history, but have NEVER won the division crown.  I want this one, but I think the Rox season will ride on whether new hitting coach Carney Lansford can get Stewart, Iannetta, and Smith to hit like they did in the minors.  I just didn't want to pick the Giants in 2nd even though they will probably still make the playoffs.  The D-Backs suck, next.  The Padres replaced their star Adrian Gonzalez with Rockie castoff Brad Hawpe playing out of position...not exactly a recipe for success.

NL Playoffs

NLDS
Rockies over Phillies
Braves over Brewers

NLCS
Rockies over Braves

NL MVP - Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
NL Cy Young - Cole Hamels, Phillies
NL ROY - Freddie Freeman, Braves

Yeah a little bit of "homer-ness," but hey these ARE my picks.  Without missing a bunch of games due to injury, Tulo was MVP last year.  This year it will happen, and several idiots will wonder if he only good because of playing in Denver.  I picked Hamels because he will be matched up with #4 starters this year and will probably rack up a lot of wins.  Rookie of the Year predictions are crazy at best, because the winner might be in the minors right now.  Freeman has the best chance at taking it down as of right now.


AL East
1. Red Sox
2. Rays - WC
3. Orioles
4. Yankees
5. Blue Jays

Surprise, the Yankees were the worst team in the AL East from August on last year.  I think is the year that age will FINALLY catch up to them, at least until they spend $800 million on Pujols and other free agents for next year.  The Orioles are on the come and it wouldn't surprise me to see them ahead of the Rays as well.  I don't think anyone has the firepower to take down Boston though.  Toronto will be a candidate for the overall #1 draft pick next year.

AL Central
1. Twins
2. Tigers
3. White Sox
4. Royals
5. Indians

I think this might be the final year for the Twins on top, because the Royals are going to be tough in 2012.  But this is still 2011, and it wouldn't surprise me to see any of the top 3 win this division.  The Indians will probably be competing with the Jays and Astros for the worst record this year.

AL West
1. Rangers
2. Athletics
3. Mariners
4. Angels

This is the Rangers' division to lose.  No one else is that strong although the A's do good young pitching as usual.  The Mariners are a prognosticator's worst nightmare.  When you think they are good, they stink and vice versa.  I am picking them to be around a .500 team.  The Angels won't be a contender this year and I don't think they will be again for at least four years.

AL Playoffs

ALDS
Rangers over Rays
Red Sox over Twins

ALCS
Red Sox over Rangers

AL MVP - Joe Mauer, Twins
AL Cy Young - Jon Lester, Red Sox
AL ROY - Desmond Jennings - Rays Kyle Drabek - Blue Jays


I think Mauer will win this year and at least one more MVP before he retires.  Man I wish he was a Rockie.  Lester I chose basically by default.  It doesn't seem that there are that many great pitchers in the AL this year.  Jennings is taking Carl Crawford left field spot and seems to be relatively the same type of player.  Kyle Drabek could also get consideration for ROY. *UPDATE* Apparently I forgot that the Rays signed Johnny Damon to take Crawford's spot so I will adjust my prediction accordingly.


World Series

Rockies over Red Sox in 6

World Series MVP - Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies

Yeah it's a homer pick, but it's not all that far-fetched.  I would love to see the rematch of the 2007 season.  I think the NL will win the All Star Game and give home field in the Series to Colorado.

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